Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
